Gridiron Core
NFL · 2026
HIGHMARK STADIUM · ORCHARD PARK, NY

Visitors 383 total, 249 passing, 134 rushing. Home 393 total, 245 passing, 148 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB57KCEVEN+255BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackBUF edge
  • Dropback successKC edge
  • Completion over expectedBUF edge
  • Turnover avoidanceKC edge
  • Sack avoidanceBUF edge
Rush54KCEVEN+251BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAKC edge
  • Rush successKC edge
  • Stuff avoidanceBUF edge
  • Explosive runsKC edge
  • Short yardageBUF edge
Pass57KCEVEN+255BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAKC edge
  • Pass successKC edge
  • Explosive passesBUF edge
  • ProtectionBUF edge
  • Completion over expectedBUF edge
Trenches47KCSLIGHTBUF+653BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlBUF edge
  • Pass protectionBUF edge
  • Short-yardage blockingBUF edge
  • Stuff creationBUF edge
  • Pressure creationBUF edge
  • Short-yardage defenseBUF edge
Explosive51KCEVEN+052BUFHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateEven
  • Explosive passesBUF edge
  • Explosive runsKC edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeBUF edge
  • Explosive preventionEven
Resilience50KCSLIGHTBUF+757BUFHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseBUF edge
  • Defensive responseKC edge
  • Momentum reversalBUF edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksEven
  • Mistake avoidanceKC edge
KCOFFENSEvsBUFDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEKC RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)26TRIPS58%SEASONBUF RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)29TRIPS66%SEASONKC SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)23%SEASONBUF FORCED FG(DEFENSE)31%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)KCRED ZONETRIPS / G3.7TOUCHDOWNS15FIELD GOALS6EMPTY5+4 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | KC KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4980%50+29%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)BUFOFFENSEvsKCDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEBUF RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)31TRIPS71%SEASONKC RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)18TRIPS39%SEASONBUF SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)29%SEASONKC FORCED FG(DEFENSE)44%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)BUFRED ZONETRIPS / G4.4TOUCHDOWNS22FIELD GOALS9EMPTY0+5 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | BUF KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (KC 7, BUF 7), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.