Gridiron Core
NFL · 2026
CAESARS SUPERDOME · NEW ORLEANS, LA

Visitors 300 total, 131 passing, 169 rushing. Home 316 total, 230 passing, 86 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB44TBSLIGHTTB+737NOHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackTB edge
  • Dropback successTB edge
  • Completion over expectedTB edge
  • Turnover avoidanceTB edge
  • Sack avoidanceNO edge
Rush64TBSTRONGTB+2639NOMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPATB edge
  • Rush successTB edge
  • Stuff avoidanceTB edge
  • Explosive runsTB edge
  • Short yardageTB edge
Pass43TBEVEN+439NOHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPATB edge
  • Pass successTB edge
  • Explosive passesTB edge
  • ProtectionNO edge
  • Completion over expectedTB edge
Trenches53TBSLIGHTTB+647NOMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlTB edge
  • Pass protectionNO edge
  • Short-yardage blockingTB edge
  • Stuff creationTB edge
  • Pressure creationNO edge
  • Short-yardage defenseTB edge
Explosive56TBCLEARTB+1442NOHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateTB edge
  • Explosive passesTB edge
  • Explosive runsTB edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeTB edge
  • Explosive preventionTB edge
Resilience49TBSLIGHTTB+742NOHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseTB edge
  • Defensive responseTB edge
  • Momentum reversalTB edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksTB edge
  • Mistake avoidanceNO edge
TBOFFENSEvsNODEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATETB RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)26TRIPS50%SEASONNO RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)31TRIPS55%SEASONTB SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)35%SEASONNO FORCED FG(DEFENSE)29%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)TBRED ZONETRIPS / G3.3TOUCHDOWNS13FIELD GOALS9EMPTY4+2 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | TB KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)NOOFFENSEvsTBDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATENO RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)23TRIPS78%SEASONTB RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)20TRIPS50%SEASONNO SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)17%SEASONTB FORCED FG(DEFENSE)30%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)NORED ZONETRIPS / G3.3TOUCHDOWNS18FIELD GOALS4EMPTY1+1 TD FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | NO KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+43%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (TB 8, NO 7), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.