Gridiron Core
NFL · 2026
RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM · TAMPA, FL

Visitors 384 total, 259 passing, 126 rushing. Home 300 total, 131 passing, 169 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB40LAREVEN+436TBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackEven
  • Dropback successLAR edge
  • Completion over expectedLAR edge
  • Turnover avoidanceTB edge
  • Sack avoidanceLAR edge
Rush53LARSLIGHTLAR+647TBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPALAR edge
  • Rush successLAR edge
  • Stuff avoidanceLAR edge
  • Explosive runsTB edge
  • Short yardageTB edge
Pass43LARSLIGHTLAR+935TBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPALAR edge
  • Pass successLAR edge
  • Explosive passesLAR edge
  • ProtectionLAR edge
  • Completion over expectedLAR edge
Trenches53LARSLIGHTLAR+547TBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlLAR edge
  • Pass protectionLAR edge
  • Short-yardage blockingTB edge
  • Stuff creationLAR edge
  • Pressure creationLAR edge
  • Short-yardage defenseTB edge
Explosive49LAREVEN+247TBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateLAR edge
  • Explosive passesLAR edge
  • Explosive runsTB edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeEven
  • Explosive preventionLAR edge
Resilience48LAREVEN+149TBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseLAR edge
  • Defensive responseTB edge
  • Momentum reversalTB edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksTB edge
  • Mistake avoidanceLAR edge
LAROFFENSEvsTBDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATELAR RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)29TRIPS69%SEASONTB RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)20TRIPS50%SEASONLAR SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)14%SEASONTB FORCED FG(DEFENSE)30%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)LARRED ZONETRIPS / G3.6TOUCHDOWNS20FIELD GOALS4EMPTY5+5 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | LAR KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29—30 - 39100%40 - 4957%50+0%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)TBOFFENSEvsLARDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATETB RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)26TRIPS50%SEASONLAR RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)28TRIPS43%SEASONTB SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)35%SEASONLAR FORCED FG(DEFENSE)46%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)TBRED ZONETRIPS / G3.3TOUCHDOWNS13FIELD GOALS9EMPTY4+2 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | TB KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (LAR 8, TB 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.