Gridiron Core
NFL · 2026
HIGHMARK STADIUM · ORCHARD PARK, NY

Visitors 320 total, 215 passing, 105 rushing. Home 393 total, 245 passing, 148 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB55NYJSLIGHTBUF+862BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackBUF edge
  • Dropback successBUF edge
  • Completion over expectedBUF edge
  • Turnover avoidanceBUF edge
  • Sack avoidanceBUF edge
Rush52NYJEVEN+053BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAEven
  • Rush successNYJ edge
  • Stuff avoidanceBUF edge
  • Explosive runsNYJ edge
  • Short yardageBUF edge
Pass57NYJEVEN+360BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPABUF edge
  • Pass successBUF edge
  • Explosive passesNYJ edge
  • ProtectionBUF edge
  • Completion over expectedBUF edge
Trenches45NYJSLIGHTBUF+955BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlBUF edge
  • Pass protectionBUF edge
  • Short-yardage blockingBUF edge
  • Stuff creationBUF edge
  • Pressure creationBUF edge
  • Short-yardage defenseBUF edge
Explosive57NYJCLEARNYJ+1146BUFHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateNYJ edge
  • Explosive passesNYJ edge
  • Explosive runsNYJ edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeNYJ edge
  • Explosive preventionNYJ edge
Resilience52NYJSLIGHTBUF+557BUFHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseBUF edge
  • Defensive responseNYJ edge
  • Momentum reversalBUF edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksBUF edge
  • Mistake avoidanceNYJ edge
NYJOFFENSEvsBUFDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATENYJ RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)26TRIPS42%SEASONBUF RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)29TRIPS66%SEASONNYJ SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)50%SEASONBUF FORCED FG(DEFENSE)31%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)NYJRED ZONETRIPS / G3.3TOUCHDOWNS11FIELD GOALS13EMPTY2+6 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | NYJ KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4975%50+75%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)BUFOFFENSEvsNYJDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEBUF RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)31TRIPS71%SEASONNYJ RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)29TRIPS62%SEASONBUF SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)29%SEASONNYJ FORCED FG(DEFENSE)31%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)BUFRED ZONETRIPS / G4.4TOUCHDOWNS22FIELD GOALS9EMPTY0+5 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | BUF KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (NYJ 8, BUF 7), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.