Gridiron Core
NFL · 2026
M&T BANK STADIUM · BALTIMORE, MD

Visitors 300 total, 131 passing, 169 rushing. Home 339 total, 205 passing, 134 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB43TBSLIGHTTB+934BALHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackTB edge
  • Dropback successTB edge
  • Completion over expectedTB edge
  • Turnover avoidanceTB edge
  • Sack avoidanceTB edge
Rush55TBCLEARTB+1243BALMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPATB edge
  • Rush successTB edge
  • Stuff avoidanceTB edge
  • Explosive runsEven
  • Short yardageTB edge
Pass42TBEVEN+439BALHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPATB edge
  • Pass successTB edge
  • Explosive passesBAL edge
  • ProtectionTB edge
  • Completion over expectedTB edge
Trenches56TBCLEARTB+1344BALMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlTB edge
  • Pass protectionTB edge
  • Short-yardage blockingTB edge
  • Stuff creationTB edge
  • Pressure creationTB edge
  • Short-yardage defenseTB edge
Explosive46TBSLIGHTBAL+652BALHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateBAL edge
  • Explosive passesBAL edge
  • Explosive runsEven
  • Breakaway magnitudeBAL edge
  • Explosive preventionBAL edge
Resilience49TBSLIGHTTB+841BALHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseTB edge
  • Defensive responseTB edge
  • Momentum reversalTB edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksTB edge
  • Mistake avoidanceBAL edge
TBOFFENSEvsBALDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATETB RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)26TRIPS50%SEASONBAL RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)30TRIPS70%SEASONTB SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)35%SEASONBAL FORCED FG(DEFENSE)27%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)TBRED ZONETRIPS / G3.3TOUCHDOWNS13FIELD GOALS9EMPTY4+2 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | TB KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)BALOFFENSEvsTBDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEBAL RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)27TRIPS59%SEASONTB RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)20TRIPS50%SEASONBAL SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)30%SEASONTB FORCED FG(DEFENSE)30%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)BALRED ZONETRIPS / G3.4TOUCHDOWNS16FIELD GOALS7EMPTY4+4 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | BAL KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 3967%40 - 4940%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (TB 8, BAL 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.