Gridiron Core
NFL · 2026
RAYMOND JAMES STADIUM · TAMPA, FL

Visitors 364 total, 262 passing, 102 rushing. Home 300 total, 131 passing, 169 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB33CARSLIGHTTB+942TBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackTB edge
  • Dropback successTB edge
  • Completion over expectedTB edge
  • Turnover avoidanceTB edge
  • Sack avoidanceTB edge
Rush46CARCLEARTB+1460TBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPATB edge
  • Rush successTB edge
  • Stuff avoidanceTB edge
  • Explosive runsTB edge
  • Short yardageTB edge
Pass37CAREVEN+239TBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPATB edge
  • Pass successTB edge
  • Explosive passesCAR edge
  • ProtectionTB edge
  • Completion over expectedTB edge
Trenches42CARCLEARTB+1558TBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlTB edge
  • Pass protectionTB edge
  • Short-yardage blockingTB edge
  • Stuff creationTB edge
  • Pressure creationTB edge
  • Short-yardage defenseTB edge
Explosive51CARSLIGHTCAR+645TBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateCAR edge
  • Explosive passesCAR edge
  • Explosive runsTB edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeCAR edge
  • Explosive preventionCAR edge
Resilience52CAREVEN+349TBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseCAR edge
  • Defensive responseCAR edge
  • Momentum reversalCAR edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksEven
  • Mistake avoidanceCAR edge
CAROFFENSEvsTBDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATECAR RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)26TRIPS62%SEASONTB RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)20TRIPS50%SEASONCAR SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)23%SEASONTB FORCED FG(DEFENSE)30%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)CARRED ZONETRIPS / G3.7TOUCHDOWNS16FIELD GOALS6EMPTY4+4 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | CAR KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)TBOFFENSEvsCARDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATETB RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)26TRIPS50%SEASONCAR RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)20TRIPS80%SEASONTB SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)35%SEASONCAR FORCED FG(DEFENSE)10%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)TBRED ZONETRIPS / G3.3TOUCHDOWNS13FIELD GOALS9EMPTY4+2 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | TB KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (CAR 7, TB 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.