Gridiron Core
NFL · 2026
HIGHMARK STADIUM · ORCHARD PARK, NY

Visitors 387 total, 237 passing, 151 rushing. Home 393 total, 245 passing, 148 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB55CHISLIGHTCHI+550BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackEven
  • Dropback successCHI edge
  • Completion over expectedEven
  • Turnover avoidanceCHI edge
  • Sack avoidanceCHI edge
Rush48CHIEVEN+453BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAEven
  • Rush successCHI edge
  • Stuff avoidanceBUF edge
  • Explosive runsBUF edge
  • Short yardageBUF edge
Pass56CHIEVEN+353BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAEven
  • Pass successCHI edge
  • Explosive passesBUF edge
  • ProtectionCHI edge
  • Completion over expectedEven
Trenches48CHIEVEN+352BUFMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlBUF edge
  • Pass protectionCHI edge
  • Short-yardage blockingBUF edge
  • Stuff creationBUF edge
  • Pressure creationCHI edge
  • Short-yardage defenseBUF edge
Explosive44CHICLEARBUF+1458BUFHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateBUF edge
  • Explosive passesBUF edge
  • Explosive runsBUF edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeBUF edge
  • Explosive preventionBUF edge
Resilience50CHISLIGHTBUF+757BUFHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseBUF edge
  • Defensive responseEven
  • Momentum reversalBUF edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksBUF edge
  • Mistake avoidanceCHI edge
CHIOFFENSEvsBUFDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATECHI RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)34TRIPS59%SEASONBUF RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)29TRIPS66%SEASONCHI SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)18%SEASONBUF FORCED FG(DEFENSE)31%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)CHIRED ZONETRIPS / G4.3TOUCHDOWNS20FIELD GOALS5EMPTY9+5 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | CHI KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 2967%30 - 39100%40 - 4980%50+60%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)BUFOFFENSEvsCHIDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEBUF RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)31TRIPS71%SEASONCHI RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)23TRIPS52%SEASONBUF SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)29%SEASONCHI FORCED FG(DEFENSE)26%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)BUFRED ZONETRIPS / G4.4TOUCHDOWNS22FIELD GOALS9EMPTY0+5 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | BUF KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (CHI 8, BUF 7), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.