Gridiron Core

Visitors 345 total, 177 passing, 168 rushing. Home 355 total, 217 passing, 137 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB47BUFEVEN+245AKRMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackBUF edge
  • Dropback successEven
  • Completion over expectedAKR edge
  • Turnover avoidanceBUF edge
  • Sack avoidanceBUF edge
Rush53BUFEVEN+152AKRHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPABUF edge
  • Rush successAKR edge
  • Stuff avoidanceEven
  • Explosive runsAKR edge
  • Short yardageBUF edge
Pass48BUFEVEN+246AKRMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPABUF edge
  • Pass successEven
  • Explosive passesAKR edge
  • ProtectionBUF edge
  • Completion over expectedAKR edge
Trenches55BUFCLEARBUF+1145AKRMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlEven
  • Pass protectionBUF edge
  • Short-yardage blockingBUF edge
  • Stuff creationEven
  • Pressure creationBUF edge
  • Short-yardage defenseBUF edge
Explosive48BUFEVEN+351AKRHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateAKR edge
  • Explosive passesAKR edge
  • Explosive runsAKR edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeBUF edge
  • Explosive preventionAKR edge
Resilience52BUFCLEARBUF+1141AKRHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseBUF edge
  • Defensive responseBUF edge
  • Momentum reversalBUF edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksBUF edge
  • Mistake avoidanceBUF edge
BUFOFFENSEvsAKRDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEBUF RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)39TRIPS51%SEASONAKR RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)30TRIPS53%SEASONBUF SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)36%SEASONAKR FORCED FG(DEFENSE)40%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)BUFRED ZONETRIPS / G4.3TOUCHDOWNS20FIELD GOALS12EMPTY7+4 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | BUF KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 3975%40 - 4950%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)AKROFFENSEvsBUFDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEAKR RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)28TRIPS57%SEASONBUF RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)28TRIPS61%SEASONAKR SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)32%SEASONBUF FORCED FG(DEFENSE)21%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)AKRRED ZONETRIPS / G3.1TOUCHDOWNS16FIELD GOALS6EMPTY6+4 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | AKR KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4945%50+50%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (BUF 9, AKR 9), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.