Gridiron Core

Visitors 336 total, 231 passing, 105 rushing. Home 368 total, 216 passing, 153 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB54ARKEVEN+450AUBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackEven
  • Dropback successARK edge
  • Completion over expectedAUB edge
  • Turnover avoidanceAUB edge
  • Sack avoidanceARK edge
Rush52ARKEVEN+457AUBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAAUB edge
  • Rush successARK edge
  • Stuff avoidanceAUB edge
  • Explosive runsAUB edge
  • Short yardageEven
Pass53ARKSLIGHTARK+548AUBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAEven
  • Pass successARK edge
  • Explosive passesAUB edge
  • ProtectionARK edge
  • Completion over expectedAUB edge
Trenches52ARKEVEN+548AUBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlAUB edge
  • Pass protectionARK edge
  • Short-yardage blockingEven
  • Stuff creationAUB edge
  • Pressure creationARK edge
  • Short-yardage defenseEven
Explosive46ARKSLIGHTAUB+753AUBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateAUB edge
  • Explosive passesAUB edge
  • Explosive runsAUB edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeAUB edge
  • Explosive preventionAUB edge
Resilience49ARKEVEN+247AUBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseAUB edge
  • Defensive responseARK edge
  • Momentum reversalARK edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksARK edge
  • Mistake avoidanceAUB edge
ARKOFFENSEvsAUBDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEARK RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)27TRIPS52%SEASONAUB RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)25TRIPS72%SEASONARK SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)30%SEASONAUB FORCED FG(DEFENSE)24%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)ARKRED ZONETRIPS / G3.4TOUCHDOWNS14FIELD GOALS8EMPTY5+3 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | ARK KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 3983%40 - 49100%50+20%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)AUBOFFENSEvsARKDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEAUB RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)28TRIPS57%SEASONARK RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)31TRIPS81%SEASONAUB SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)14%SEASONARK FORCED FG(DEFENSE)6%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)AUBRED ZONETRIPS / G3.5TOUCHDOWNS16FIELD GOALS4EMPTY8+6 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | AUB KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4980%50+50%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (ARK 8, AUB 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.