Gridiron Core

Visitors 294 total, 212 passing, 82 rushing. Home 368 total, 216 passing, 153 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB52SAMSLIGHTSAM+744AUBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackSAM edge
  • Dropback successSAM edge
  • Completion over expectedSAM edge
  • Turnover avoidanceSAM edge
  • Sack avoidanceSAM edge
Rush47SAMEVEN+350AUBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPASAM edge
  • Rush successAUB edge
  • Stuff avoidanceAUB edge
  • Explosive runsAUB edge
  • Short yardageSAM edge
Pass50SAMSLIGHTSAM+743AUBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPASAM edge
  • Pass successSAM edge
  • Explosive passesAUB edge
  • ProtectionSAM edge
  • Completion over expectedSAM edge
Trenches53SAMSLIGHTSAM+647AUBMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlAUB edge
  • Pass protectionSAM edge
  • Short-yardage blockingSAM edge
  • Stuff creationAUB edge
  • Pressure creationSAM edge
  • Short-yardage defenseSAM edge
Explosive47SAMEVEN+451AUBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateAUB edge
  • Explosive passesAUB edge
  • Explosive runsAUB edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeAUB edge
  • Explosive preventionAUB edge
Resilience45SAMEVEN+347AUBHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseAUB edge
  • Defensive responseSAM edge
  • Momentum reversalAUB edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksSAM edge
  • Mistake avoidanceAUB edge
SAMOFFENSEvsAUBDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATESAM RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)23TRIPS48%SEASONAUB RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)25TRIPS72%SEASONSAM SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)48%SEASONAUB FORCED FG(DEFENSE)24%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)SAMRED ZONETRIPS / G2.6TOUCHDOWNS11FIELD GOALS7EMPTY5+3 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | SAM KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 2983%30 - 3933%40 - 4957%50+75%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)AUBOFFENSEvsSAMDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEAUB RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)28TRIPS57%SEASONSAM RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)26TRIPS38%SEASONAUB SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)14%SEASONSAM FORCED FG(DEFENSE)35%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)AUBRED ZONETRIPS / G3.5TOUCHDOWNS16FIELD GOALS4EMPTY8+6 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | AUB KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4980%50+50%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (SAM 9, AUB 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.