Gridiron Core

Visitors 451 total, 249 passing, 202 rushing. Home 438 total, 247 passing, 191 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB54JMUSLIGHTJMU+746CONNMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackJMU edge
  • Dropback successJMU edge
  • Completion over expectedJMU edge
  • Turnover avoidanceCONN edge
  • Sack avoidanceJMU edge
Rush55JMUSLIGHTJMU+649CONNMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAJMU edge
  • Rush successJMU edge
  • Stuff avoidanceJMU edge
  • Explosive runsCONN edge
  • Short yardageJMU edge
Pass54JMUSLIGHTJMU+747CONNMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAJMU edge
  • Pass successJMU edge
  • Explosive passesCONN edge
  • ProtectionJMU edge
  • Completion over expectedJMU edge
Trenches59JMUSTRONGJMU+1841CONNMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlJMU edge
  • Pass protectionJMU edge
  • Short-yardage blockingJMU edge
  • Stuff creationJMU edge
  • Pressure creationJMU edge
  • Short-yardage defenseJMU edge
Explosive44JMUCLEARCONN+1256CONNHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateCONN edge
  • Explosive passesCONN edge
  • Explosive runsCONN edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeCONN edge
  • Explosive preventionCONN edge
Resilience53JMUEVEN+250CONNHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseEven
  • Defensive responseJMU edge
  • Momentum reversalEven
  • Explosive prevention after shocksJMU edge
  • Mistake avoidanceJMU edge
JMUOFFENSEvsCONNDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEJMU RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)40TRIPS70%SEASONCONN RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)31TRIPS68%SEASONJMU SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)23%SEASONCONN FORCED FG(DEFENSE)23%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)JMURED ZONETRIPS / G4.4TOUCHDOWNS28FIELD GOALS9EMPTY3+14 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | JMU KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4950%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)CONNOFFENSEvsJMUDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATECONN RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)28TRIPS75%SEASONJMU RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)26TRIPS50%SEASONCONN SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)14%SEASONJMU FORCED FG(DEFENSE)35%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)CONNRED ZONETRIPS / G3.5TOUCHDOWNS21FIELD GOALS3EMPTY4+15 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | CONN KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39—40 - 4925%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (JMU 9, CONN 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.