Gridiron Core

Visitors 345 total, 237 passing, 108 rushing. Home 357 total, 212 passing, 145 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB55UNCEVEN+254UVAMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackUNC edge
  • Dropback successUNC edge
  • Completion over expectedUVA edge
  • Turnover avoidanceUVA edge
  • Sack avoidanceEven
Rush57UNCEVEN+453UVAMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAUNC edge
  • Rush successEven
  • Stuff avoidanceEven
  • Explosive runsUNC edge
  • Short yardageUNC edge
Pass55UNCEVEN+550UVAMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAUNC edge
  • Pass successUNC edge
  • Explosive passesUNC edge
  • ProtectionEven
  • Completion over expectedUVA edge
Trenches51UNCEVEN+149UVAMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlEven
  • Pass protectionEven
  • Short-yardage blockingUNC edge
  • Stuff creationEven
  • Pressure creationEven
  • Short-yardage defenseUNC edge
Explosive56UNCCLEARUNC+1442UVAHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateUNC edge
  • Explosive passesUNC edge
  • Explosive runsUNC edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeUNC edge
  • Explosive preventionUNC edge
Resilience48UNCSLIGHTUNC+643UVAHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseUNC edge
  • Defensive responseUNC edge
  • Momentum reversalUNC edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksUNC edge
  • Mistake avoidanceEven
UNCOFFENSEvsUVADEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEUNC RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)28TRIPS71%SEASONUVA RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)24TRIPS67%SEASONUNC SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)25%SEASONUVA FORCED FG(DEFENSE)29%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)UNCRED ZONETRIPS / G3.5TOUCHDOWNS20FIELD GOALS7EMPTY1+5 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | UNC KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 490%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)UVAOFFENSEvsUNCDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEUVA RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)32TRIPS63%SEASONUNC RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)28TRIPS54%SEASONUVA SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)19%SEASONUNC FORCED FG(DEFENSE)32%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)UVARED ZONETRIPS / G3.6TOUCHDOWNS20FIELD GOALS4EMPTY8+9 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | UVA KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 3960%40 - 4980%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (UNC 8, UVA 9), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.