Gridiron Core

Visitors 421 total, 236 passing, 185 rushing. Home 408 total, 249 passing, 159 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB60DUKESLIGHTDUKE+950NCSUMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackDUKE edge
  • Dropback successDUKE edge
  • Completion over expectedDUKE edge
  • Turnover avoidanceDUKE edge
  • Sack avoidanceDUKE edge
Rush49DUKEEVEN+544NCSUHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPADUKE edge
  • Rush successNCSU edge
  • Stuff avoidanceNCSU edge
  • Explosive runsDUKE edge
  • Short yardageDUKE edge
Pass58DUKESLIGHTDUKE+1049NCSUMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPADUKE edge
  • Pass successDUKE edge
  • Explosive passesEven
  • ProtectionDUKE edge
  • Completion over expectedDUKE edge
Trenches55DUKESLIGHTDUKE+945NCSUMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlNCSU edge
  • Pass protectionDUKE edge
  • Short-yardage blockingDUKE edge
  • Stuff creationNCSU edge
  • Pressure creationDUKE edge
  • Short-yardage defenseDUKE edge
Explosive57DUKECLEARDUKE+1443NCSUHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateDUKE edge
  • Explosive passesEven
  • Explosive runsDUKE edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeDUKE edge
  • Explosive preventionDUKE edge
Resilience56DUKESLIGHTDUKE+848NCSUMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseDUKE edge
  • Defensive responseDUKE edge
  • Momentum reversalDUKE edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksDUKE edge
  • Mistake avoidanceNCSU edge
DUKEOFFENSEvsNCSUDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEDUKE RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)34TRIPS62%SEASONNCSU RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)24TRIPS75%SEASONDUKE SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)29%SEASONNCSU FORCED FG(DEFENSE)13%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)DUKERED ZONETRIPS / G4.3TOUCHDOWNS21FIELD GOALS8EMPTY5+10 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | DUKE KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 3975%40 - 49100%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)NCSUOFFENSEvsDUKEDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATENCSU RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)34TRIPS68%SEASONDUKE RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)20TRIPS50%SEASONNCSU SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)18%SEASONDUKE FORCED FG(DEFENSE)25%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)NCSURED ZONETRIPS / G4.3TOUCHDOWNS23FIELD GOALS6EMPTY5+10 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | NCSU KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4975%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (DUKE 8, NCSU 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.