Gridiron Core

Visitors 384 total, 209 passing, 174 rushing. Home 394 total, 230 passing, 164 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB61IOWASLIGHTIOWA+754ILLMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackEven
  • Dropback successIOWA edge
  • Completion over expectedIOWA edge
  • Turnover avoidanceILL edge
  • Sack avoidanceIOWA edge
Rush50IOWACLEARIOWA+1139ILLMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAIOWA edge
  • Rush successIOWA edge
  • Stuff avoidanceEven
  • Explosive runsIOWA edge
  • Short yardageILL edge
Pass62IOWASLIGHTIOWA+854ILLMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAEven
  • Pass successIOWA edge
  • Explosive passesEven
  • ProtectionIOWA edge
  • Completion over expectedIOWA edge
Trenches54IOWASLIGHTIOWA+746ILLMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlEven
  • Pass protectionIOWA edge
  • Short-yardage blockingILL edge
  • Stuff creationEven
  • Pressure creationIOWA edge
  • Short-yardage defenseILL edge
Explosive54IOWASLIGHTIOWA+846ILLHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateIOWA edge
  • Explosive passesEven
  • Explosive runsIOWA edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeIOWA edge
  • Explosive preventionIOWA edge
Resilience56IOWAEVEN+255ILLHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseILL edge
  • Defensive responseIOWA edge
  • Momentum reversalILL edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksIOWA edge
  • Mistake avoidanceIOWA edge
IOWAOFFENSEvsILLDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEIOWA RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)25TRIPS60%SEASONILL RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)29TRIPS66%SEASONIOWA SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)24%SEASONILL FORCED FG(DEFENSE)31%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)IOWARED ZONETRIPS / G3.1TOUCHDOWNS15FIELD GOALS6EMPTY4+10 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | IOWA KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 49100%50+50%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)ILLOFFENSEvsIOWADEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEILL RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)23TRIPS65%SEASONIOWA RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)21TRIPS43%SEASONILL SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)17%SEASONIOWA FORCED FG(DEFENSE)29%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)ILLRED ZONETRIPS / G2.9TOUCHDOWNS15FIELD GOALS3EMPTY5+11 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | ILL KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 3975%40 - 49100%50+50%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (IOWA 8, ILL 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.