Gridiron Core

Visitors 345 total, 237 passing, 108 rushing. Home 438 total, 247 passing, 191 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB57UNCEVEN+255CONNMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackUNC edge
  • Dropback successUNC edge
  • Completion over expectedUNC edge
  • Turnover avoidanceCONN edge
  • Sack avoidanceUNC edge
Rush55UNCEVEN+459CONNMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPACONN edge
  • Rush successCONN edge
  • Stuff avoidanceEven
  • Explosive runsCONN edge
  • Short yardageUNC edge
Pass56UNCEVEN+253CONNMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAUNC edge
  • Pass successUNC edge
  • Explosive passesCONN edge
  • ProtectionUNC edge
  • Completion over expectedUNC edge
Trenches51UNCEVEN+249CONNMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlEven
  • Pass protectionUNC edge
  • Short-yardage blockingUNC edge
  • Stuff creationEven
  • Pressure creationUNC edge
  • Short-yardage defenseUNC edge
Explosive46UNCSLIGHTCONN+653CONNHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateCONN edge
  • Explosive passesCONN edge
  • Explosive runsCONN edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeCONN edge
  • Explosive preventionCONN edge
Resilience48UNCEVEN+250CONNHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseCONN edge
  • Defensive responseCONN edge
  • Momentum reversalEven
  • Explosive prevention after shocksCONN edge
  • Mistake avoidanceUNC edge
UNCOFFENSEvsCONNDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEUNC RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)28TRIPS71%SEASONCONN RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)31TRIPS68%SEASONUNC SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)25%SEASONCONN FORCED FG(DEFENSE)23%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)UNCRED ZONETRIPS / G3.5TOUCHDOWNS20FIELD GOALS7EMPTY1+5 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | UNC KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 490%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)CONNOFFENSEvsUNCDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATECONN RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)28TRIPS75%SEASONUNC RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)28TRIPS54%SEASONCONN SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)14%SEASONUNC FORCED FG(DEFENSE)32%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)CONNRED ZONETRIPS / G3.5TOUCHDOWNS21FIELD GOALS3EMPTY4+15 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | CONN KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39—40 - 4925%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (UNC 8, CONN 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.