Gridiron Core

Visitors 353 total, 197 passing, 157 rushing. Home 345 total, 198 passing, 146 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB42NMSUEVEN+042MTSUMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackNMSU edge
  • Dropback successNMSU edge
  • Completion over expectedMTSU edge
  • Turnover avoidanceMTSU edge
  • Sack avoidanceNMSU edge
Rush60NMSUSLIGHTNMSU+952MTSUMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPANMSU edge
  • Rush successNMSU edge
  • Stuff avoidanceNMSU edge
  • Explosive runsMTSU edge
  • Short yardageNMSU edge
Pass46NMSUSLIGHTNMSU+641MTSUMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPANMSU edge
  • Pass successNMSU edge
  • Explosive passesNMSU edge
  • ProtectionNMSU edge
  • Completion over expectedMTSU edge
Trenches56NMSUCLEARNMSU+1144MTSUMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlNMSU edge
  • Pass protectionNMSU edge
  • Short-yardage blockingNMSU edge
  • Stuff creationNMSU edge
  • Pressure creationNMSU edge
  • Short-yardage defenseNMSU edge
Explosive55NMSUSLIGHTNMSU+1046MTSUHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateNMSU edge
  • Explosive passesNMSU edge
  • Explosive runsMTSU edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeNMSU edge
  • Explosive preventionNMSU edge
Resilience45NMSUSLIGHTMTSU+652MTSUHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseMTSU edge
  • Defensive responseMTSU edge
  • Momentum reversalMTSU edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksMTSU edge
  • Mistake avoidanceMTSU edge
NMSUOFFENSEvsMTSUDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATENMSU RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)22TRIPS55%SEASONMTSU RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)31TRIPS65%SEASONNMSU SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)41%SEASONMTSU FORCED FG(DEFENSE)26%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)NMSURED ZONETRIPS / G2.8TOUCHDOWNS12FIELD GOALS5EMPTY5+7 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | NMSU KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 2980%30 - 3950%40 - 490%50+50%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)MTSUOFFENSEvsNMSUDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEMTSU RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)18TRIPS67%SEASONNMSU RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)35TRIPS60%SEASONMTSU SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)17%SEASONNMSU FORCED FG(DEFENSE)31%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)MTSURED ZONETRIPS / G2.3TOUCHDOWNS12FIELD GOALS3EMPTY3+7 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | MTSU KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4980%50+75%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (NMSU 8, MTSU 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.