Gridiron Core

Visitors 419 total, 206 passing, 213 rushing. Home 400 total, 232 passing, 167 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB47USAEVEN+451USMMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackEven
  • Dropback successUSM edge
  • Completion over expectedUSM edge
  • Turnover avoidanceUSA edge
  • Sack avoidanceUSM edge
Rush56USAEVEN+258USMMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAEven
  • Rush successUSM edge
  • Stuff avoidanceUSA edge
  • Explosive runsUSM edge
  • Short yardageUSA edge
Pass46USASLIGHTUSM+551USMMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAEven
  • Pass successUSM edge
  • Explosive passesUSA edge
  • ProtectionUSM edge
  • Completion over expectedUSM edge
Trenches49USAEVEN+351USMMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlUSA edge
  • Pass protectionUSM edge
  • Short-yardage blockingUSA edge
  • Stuff creationUSA edge
  • Pressure creationUSM edge
  • Short-yardage defenseUSA edge
Explosive47USASLIGHTUSM+754USMHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateUSM edge
  • Explosive passesUSA edge
  • Explosive runsUSM edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeUSM edge
  • Explosive preventionUSM edge
Resilience46USAEVEN+349USMHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseUSA edge
  • Defensive responseUSM edge
  • Momentum reversalEven
  • Explosive prevention after shocksUSM edge
  • Mistake avoidanceEven
USAOFFENSEvsUSMDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEUSA RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)32TRIPS66%SEASONUSM RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)31TRIPS58%SEASONUSA SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)25%SEASONUSM FORCED FG(DEFENSE)23%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)USARED ZONETRIPS / G4.0TOUCHDOWNS21FIELD GOALS7EMPTY4+11 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | USA KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 3980%40 - 4967%50+0%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)USMOFFENSEvsUSADEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEUSM RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)29TRIPS69%SEASONUSA RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)36TRIPS78%SEASONUSM SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)17%SEASONUSA FORCED FG(DEFENSE)11%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)USMRED ZONETRIPS / G3.6TOUCHDOWNS20FIELD GOALS2EMPTY7+8 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | USM KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 290%30 - 3960%40 - 4933%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (USA 8, USM 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.