Gridiron Core

Visitors 368 total, 216 passing, 153 rushing. Home 408 total, 247 passing, 162 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB54AUBEVEN+351MSSTMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackAUB edge
  • Dropback successMSST edge
  • Completion over expectedAUB edge
  • Turnover avoidanceAUB edge
  • Sack avoidanceMSST edge
Rush50AUBEVEN+252MSSTMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPAMSST edge
  • Rush successMSST edge
  • Stuff avoidanceAUB edge
  • Explosive runsMSST edge
  • Short yardageAUB edge
Pass51AUBEVEN+050MSSTMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPAAUB edge
  • Pass successMSST edge
  • Explosive passesMSST edge
  • ProtectionMSST edge
  • Completion over expectedAUB edge
Trenches50AUBEVEN+050MSSTMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlAUB edge
  • Pass protectionMSST edge
  • Short-yardage blockingAUB edge
  • Stuff creationAUB edge
  • Pressure creationMSST edge
  • Short-yardage defenseAUB edge
Explosive47AUBEVEN+452MSSTHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateMSST edge
  • Explosive passesMSST edge
  • Explosive runsMSST edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeEven
  • Explosive preventionMSST edge
Resilience47AUBEVEN+344MSSTHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseAUB edge
  • Defensive responseMSST edge
  • Momentum reversalAUB edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksMSST edge
  • Mistake avoidanceEven
AUBOFFENSEvsMSSTDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEAUB RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)28TRIPS57%SEASONMSST RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)27TRIPS59%SEASONAUB SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)14%SEASONMSST FORCED FG(DEFENSE)30%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)AUBRED ZONETRIPS / G3.5TOUCHDOWNS16FIELD GOALS4EMPTY8+6 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | AUB KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 39100%40 - 4980%50+50%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)MSSTOFFENSEvsAUBDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEMSST RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)26TRIPS58%SEASONAUB RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)25TRIPS72%SEASONMSST SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)31%SEASONAUB FORCED FG(DEFENSE)24%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)MSSTRED ZONETRIPS / G3.3TOUCHDOWNS15FIELD GOALS6EMPTY5+13 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | MSST KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 2967%30 - 3980%40 - 49100%50+100%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (AUB 8, MSST 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.