Gridiron Core

Visitors 400 total, 232 passing, 167 rushing. Home 389 total, 242 passing, 147 rushing.

Matchup Edge

QB35USMSTRONGLT+2055LTMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • EPA per dropbackLT edge
  • Dropback successLT edge
  • Completion over expectedLT edge
  • Turnover avoidanceLT edge
  • Sack avoidanceUSM edge
Rush48USMEVEN+250LTMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Rush EPALT edge
  • Rush successEven
  • Stuff avoidanceLT edge
  • Explosive runsUSM edge
  • Short yardageLT edge
Pass37USMCLEARLT+1552LTMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Pass EPALT edge
  • Pass successLT edge
  • Explosive passesLT edge
  • ProtectionUSM edge
  • Completion over expectedLT edge
Trenches49USMEVEN+151LTMEDIUM confidence

What goes into it

  • Run-line controlLT edge
  • Pass protectionUSM edge
  • Short-yardage blockingLT edge
  • Stuff creationLT edge
  • Pressure creationUSM edge
  • Short-yardage defenseLT edge
Explosive51USMEVEN+348LTHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Explosive play rateUSM edge
  • Explosive passesLT edge
  • Explosive runsUSM edge
  • Breakaway magnitudeUSM edge
  • Explosive preventionUSM edge
Resilience49USMEVEN+453LTHIGH confidence

What goes into it

  • Offensive responseLT edge
  • Defensive responseLT edge
  • Momentum reversalLT edge
  • Explosive prevention after shocksUSM edge
  • Mistake avoidanceLT edge
USMOFFENSEvsLTDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATEUSM RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)29TRIPS69%SEASONLT RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)25TRIPS52%SEASONUSM SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)17%SEASONLT FORCED FG(DEFENSE)28%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)USMRED ZONETRIPS / G3.6TOUCHDOWNS20FIELD GOALS2EMPTY7+8 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | USM KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 290%30 - 3960%40 - 4933%50+—0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)LTOFFENSEvsUSMDEFENSESCORING TERRITORYANALYTICSRED ZONE TD RATE / TD PREVENTIONFORCED FG RATE / SETTLED FOR FG RATELT RED ZONE TD RATE(OFFENSE)33TRIPS70%SEASONUSM RED ZONE TD ALLOWED(DEFENSE)31TRIPS58%SEASONLT SETTLED FOR FG(OFFENSE)18%SEASONUSM FORCED FG(DEFENSE)23%SEASONRED ZONE TRIPS & OUTCOMES(SEASON)LTRED ZONETRIPS / G4.1TOUCHDOWNS23FIELD GOALS4EMPTY6+11 TDS FROM OUTSIDE THE 20 (SEASON)FIELD GOAL SUCCESS BY DISTANCE | LT KICKING (SEASON)MadeMissedSeason (Pregame) Accuracy0 - 29100%30 - 3933%40 - 4940%50+0%0102030405060FIELD GOAL DISTANCE (YARDS)

Season baselines are each team's completed games before kickoff (USM 8, LT 8), so the pregame numbers stay fixed once the game starts. Live counts are compared with the season's pace for the time played. Red zone: inside the opponent's 20. Explosive: a run of 10+ or a completion of 15+ yards. Play-by-play and box scores from ESPN. Matchup Edges are built from each team's games before kickoff and stay fixed for the whole game.